ECON 376

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kilkenny

Huff's probability contours

PROBi->j = (POPj/Dij)/[SUMj (POPj/Dij)]

=The probability that a person at place i with population POPi

patronizes an establishment in location j with POPj,

that is dij miles away from place i. 

 

Note that this is a ‘proper’ probability (sum to 100% over i). 

It also has the main gravity model feature that the attraction of a place (j) is directly proportional to its size and inversely proportional to its distance from i.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

locations

 

A

B

C

D

E

j

pop

i

100

80

50

200

75

 

distances

A

2

20

10

30

40

 

 

B

20

2

30

50

60

 

 

C

10

30

2

40

50

 

 

D

30

50

40

2

70

 

 

E

40

60

50

70

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

sum over j=

POPj/Daj

 

50.00

4.00

5.00

6.67

1.88

67.54

POPj/Dbj

 

5.00

40.00

1.67

4.00

1.25

51.92

POPj/Dcj

 

10.00

2.67

25.00

5.00

1.50

44.17

POPj/Ddj

 

3.33

1.60

1.25

100.00

1.07

107.25

POPj/Dej

 

2.50

1.33

1.00

2.86

37.50

45.19

SUM (POPi)

 

70.83

49.60

33.92

118.52

43.20

 

SUM (POPj)

 

67.54

51.92

44.17

107.25

45.19

(transpose of

above)

check proper probability

accounts for 100% of the places patronized:

PROBaj

 

74%

6%

7%

10%

3%

100%

PROBbj

 

10%

77%

3%

8%

2%

100%

PROBcj

 

23%

6%

57%

11%

3%

100%

PROBdj

 

3%

1%

1%

93%

1%

100%

PROBej

 

6%

3%

2%

6%

83%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 => a resident of place A shops in A 74% of the time, shops in B 6% of the time,…