23 Ag and Environmental Resources: Agent-Based Computational Economics (Tesfatsion)

ACE Research Area:
Agricultural and Natural Resource Issues

Last Updated: 29 April 2012

Site Maintained By:
Leigh Tesfatsion
Department of Economics
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011-1070
http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/
tesfatsi AT iastate.edu

Online ACE Course (Self-Study eBook)
ACE Website

Table of Contents:

Basic Issues
Overviews
Other Readings
Software, Toolkits, and Demos
Resource Sites, Groups, and Some Early Individual Researchers

Basic Issues

Long-term sustainability of agricultural practices
Tragedy of the commons (over-use of common resources)
Environmental impacts of alternative policies
Evolution of institutions for collective action
Possible extinction of specific cultures (e.g., the Anasazi) due to drought and other natural causes
Ecosystem management

Overviews

William Kaye-Blake, Frank Y. Li, A. McLeish Martin, Alan McDermott, Scott Rains, Steve Sinclair, Annette Kira, "Multi-Agent Simulation Models in Agriculture: A Review of Their Construction and Uses" (pdf,457KB), Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit (AERU), Research Report No. 318, Lincoln University, Christchurch, New Zealand, March 2010.

James Nolan, Dawn Parker, G. Cornelis van Kooten, and Thomas Berger, "An Overview of Computational Modeling in Agricultural and Resource Economics" (pdf,200KB), Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 57(4), December 2009, 417-429.

Other Readings

Paul Charteris, "Livestock Breeding Programs as Complex Adaptive Systems", Proceedings of the 14th Conference of the Association for the Advancement of Animal Breeding and Genetics," in press.

Stephen J. DeCanio, Economic Models of Climate Change: A Critique, Palgrave (Macmillan), 224pp., August 2003, ISBN: 1-4039-6336-3 (paperback).
Publisher Abstract: "The climate policy debate has been dominated by economic estimates of the costs of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet the models used to derive those estimates are based on assumptions that have largely gone untested. The conventional approach embodies structural features that rule out alternative market outcomes and possibilities for profitable energy-efficiency improvements in industry. The models' characterizations of decision-making by individuals and firms is seriously incomplete and in many cases inconsistent with the empirical evidence. In addition, the pattern of distribution of `climate rights' is crucial to determining the economic consequences of different ethical approaches to the problem of intergenerational equity. Bringing these considerations to the forefront shows how domestic and international policy solutions might be found. DeCanio concludes that a much more active approach to climate protection is justified."

Stephen J. DeCanio is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

Volker Grimm and Steven F. Railsback, Individual-Based Modeling and Ecology, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, Spring 2005.
Abstract: "This book is the first major reference on individual-based modeling and its use to develop the theoretical understanding of how ecological systems work, an approach the authors call `individual-based ecology.' The book first provides a general primer on modeling: how to design models that are as simple as possible while still allowing us to address the problems we need to study, and how to move us to address the problems we need to study, and how to move efficiently through a cycle of model design, implementation, and analysis. Next, the general problems of theory and conceptual framework for individual-based ecology are addressed... A review of over 30 studies illustrates the wide variety of ecological problems that have already been addressed with individual-based models."

Volker Grimm and others, "Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology", Science, 11 November 2005, Vol. 310, No. 5750, pp. 987-991. Published article accessible here with Science subscription.
Abstract: Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Atakelty Hailu and Steven Schilizzi, "Learning in a `Basket of Crabs' An Agent-Based Computational Model of Repeated Conservation Auctions" (pdf,229KB), Discussion Paper, School of Agriculture and Resource Economics, The University of Western Australia, 2003. Accessed on 5/19/03.
Abstract: "Auctions are increasingly being considered as a mechanism for allocating conservation contracts to private landowners. This interest is based on the widely held belief that competitive bidding helps minimize information rents. This study constructs an agent-based model to evaluate the long term performance of conservation auctions under settings where bidders are allowed to learn from previous outcomes. The results clearly indicate that the efficiency benefits of one-shot auctions are quickly eroded under dynamic settings. Furthermore, the auction mechanism is not found to be superior to fixed payment schemes except when the latter involve the use of high prices."

Additional Note: This study begins with careful description of the empirical auction problem at hand, and the difficulties encountered in trying to use the existing theoretical auction literature (constrained by analytical tractability concerns) to investigate this problem. It also provides an exceptionally thoughtful discussion of the potential role of human-subject and computational-agent experiments in helping to advance the understanding of real-world auctions.

Scott Heckbert, Tim Baynes, and Andrew Reeson, "Agent-Based Modeling in Econological Economics" (pdf,234KB), Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1185(1), 2010, 39-53.
Abstract: "Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABMB) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems."

W. Jager, M. A. Janssen, H. J. M. De Vries, J. De Greef, and C. A. J. Vlek, "Behaviour in Commons Dilemmas: Homo Economicus and Homo Psychologicus in an Ecological-Economic Model", Ecological Economics 35 (2000), 357-379.

Marco A. Janssen and Elinor Ostrom, "Governing Social-Ecological Systems", Chapter 15 in Leigh Tesfatsion and Kenneth L. Judd (editors), Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics, Handbooks in Economics Series, North-Holland, Amsterdam, Spring 2006, to appear.
Abstract: Social-ecological systems are complex adaptive systems where social and biophysical agents are interacting at multiple temporal and spatial scales. The main challenge for the study of governance of social-ecological systems is improving our understanding of the conditions under which cooperative solutions are sustained, how social actors can make robust decisions in the face of uncertainty and how the topology of interactions between social and biophysical actors affect governance. We review the contributions of agent-based modeling to these challenges for theoretical studies, studies which combines models with laboratory experiments and applications of practical case studies.

Marco A. Janssen (ed.), Complexity and Ecosystem Management: The Theory and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems, Edward Elgar Publishers, Cheltenham, UK, 2002.
Marco A. Janssen and Wander Jager, Preface to the Special Issue on the Human Actor in Ecological-Economic Models, Ecological Economics 35 (2000), 307-310.

David S. Kirby, Gwenhael Allain, Patrick Lehodey, Adam Langley, "Individual/Agent-Based Modelling of Fishes, Fishers, and Turtles" (pdf,266KB), Report, Oceanic Fisheries Programme, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Numea, New Caledonia, July 2004.
Abstract: This paper provides a brief review of individual/agent-based modelling and its actual and potential applications to fisheries in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean.

Roland H. Lamberson (ed.), "Natural Resource Modeling: Special Issue on Individual-Based Models", The Rocky Mountain Mathematics Consortium, Volume 15, Number 1, March 2002.
Abstract: This special issue is based on the symposium "Advancing the Individual-Based Modeling Approach: New Tools and Concepts," at the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Snowbird, Utah, August 10, 2000. The goal of the volume is to reconsider the status of individual-based models, present some promising new approaches, and give some examples of successful new models. For more information about this volume, visit here.

Stephen Lansing and James N. Kremer, "Emergent Properties of Balinese Water Temple Networks: Coadaptation on a Rugged Fitness Landscape", American Anthropologist, Vol. 95, 1993, pp. 97-114. Published article available at JSTOR.
Abstract: Over hundreds of years, Balinese farmers have developed an intricate hierarchical network of "water temples" dedicated to agricultural deities in parallel with physical transformations of their island deliberately undertaken to make it more suitable for growing irrigated rice. The water temple network plays an instrumental role in the coordination of activities related to rice production. Representatives of different water temple congregations meet regularly to decide cropping patterns, planting times, and water usage, thus helping to synchronize harvests and control pest populations. Lansing and Kremer develop an ecological simulation model to illuminate the system-level effects of the water temple network, both social and ecological. Their anthropological study illustrates many important ABM concepts, including emergent properties, fitness landscapes, co-adaptation, and the effects of different institutional designs.
For an analysis and critique of this paper, see Marco Janssen, "Coordination in Irrigation Systems: An Analysis of the Lansing-Kremer Model of Bali" (pdf,787KB), Working Paper, Indiana University, downloaded 6/7/05.

Elinor Ostrom, Roy Gardner, and James Walker, Rules, Games, and Common-Pool Resources, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 1994.
Elinor Ostrom, Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action, Cambridge University Press, MA, 1990.

Elinor Ostrom, Collective Action and the Evolution of Social Norms, Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 (2000), 137-158.

David A. Robalino, Social Capital, Technology Diffusion, and Sustainable Growth in the Developing World, Ph.D. Dissertation (Linked List of Chapters, html), RAND Report RGSD-151, 2000.
Abstract: The author develops an agent-based macro-econometric model for the developing world that endogenizes the process of technology diffusion by formalizing the role of social interactions. Among other things, the model is used to address the question of how to allocate aggregate income to the creation of human and produced capital, and how to distribute over time the consumption of natural resources and environmental resources, in order to generate a sustainable growth path that maximizes intertemporal social welfare.

J. Rouchier, F. Bousquet, M. Requier-Desjardins, and M. Antona, "A Multi-Agent Model for Describing Transhumance in North Cameroon: Comparison of Different Rationality to Develop a Routine", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 25, March 2001, pages 527-559.

Special issue of the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS) on Agent-Based Modelling, Game Theory, and Natural Resource Management Issues (html), Volume 4, No. 2, March 2001. (Abstracts and full texts of papers for this electronic journal are freely available online.)

Workshop on Agent-Based Models of Land Use and Land Cover Change (html), held in parallel to the NAS Sackler Colloquium, Beckman Center, Irvine, California, October 4-6, 2001.

Software, Toolkits, and Demos

Annotated list of pointers to ACE/CAS General Software and Toolkits

Annotated list of pointers to ACE/CAS Computational Laboratories and Demonstration Software

Matthew L. Little (Anthropology Department, University of Arizona) maintains a site titled Artificial Anasazi focused on an agent-based computer simulation platform modeling the residential patterns of the prehistoric Anasazi, who lived in the Long House Valley of Northern Arizona. The platform was developed at the Santa Fe Institute and the Brookings Institution under the direction of George Gumerman, now the director of the Arizona State Museum.

Cormas (Le Cirad, France): Multi-agent dynamic simulation software used by Rouchier et al. to model renewable resource management problems.

Echo is a simulation tool for ecological modelling. Echo was originally developed by John Holland and Terry Jones at the Santa Fe Institute to investigate mechanisms which regulate diversity and information-processing in complex adaptive systems, i.e., systems comprised of many interacting adaptive agents. Echo agents interact via combat, mating, and trade to develop strategies for ensuring survival in resource-limited environments. The result is complicated networks of interactions and resource flows that resemble species communities in ecological systems. A NetLogo Echo Demo is available.

Garvin H. Boyle has developed a program in C++, called Model Economies (ModEco), for the modeling and study of sustainable economic systems. Targeted for a Windows desktop, ModEco is designed as a laboratory in which users can design a simple economy by selecting options and changing parametric values and then run a demonstration of that economy. Genetic algorithms control pricing strategies which evolve as time passes. Some features, such as municipal grants, can be toggled on or off, enabling or disabling channels of flow of value between economic stores of value. Some parametric values can be altered to regulate the flow of value between stores. Realtime output enables the user to see changes in the economy as it evolves. Optional comma-separated value files (text-based CSV files) can be produced, collecting a wide variety of micro- and macro-economic data. These files can then be imported into MS Excel for analysis. The larger goal of the ModEco project is to demonstrate the most simple complete economy possible (from farmer�s field, to food, to fertilizer) which is consistent with the conservation laws of physics. The specific goal is to abstract an irreducible list of fundamental characteristics of a sustainable economy. The associated website provides access to downloadable software and a variety of working notes and papers describing data analysis activities undertaken so far. The software is in alpha-release state (little user documentation, manual installation, time-limited version control) and is offered as-is, but further development is intended. The author would welcome all correspondence about the software.

Simulistics develops and distributes Simile, which is modeling and simulation software for complex dynamic systems in the earth, environmental and life sciences. Simile uses a unique logic-based declarative modeling technology to represent the interactions in these systems in a clearly structured and visually intuitive way.

Thomas Maxwell, Ferdinando Villa, and Robert Costanza, all with the International Institute for Ecological Economics (Center for Environmental Science, University of Maryland SysteMB), have developed an integrated environment for high-performance spatial modeling called the Spatial Modeling Environment (SME). From the SME home page: "This environment, which transparently links icon-based modeling environments with advanced computing resources, allows modellers to develop simulations in a user-friendly, graphical environment, requiring no knowledge of computer programming. Automatic code generators construct (spatial) simulations and enable distributed processing over a network of parallel and serial computers, allowing transparent access to state-of-the-art computing facilities. The environment imposes the constraints of modularity and hierarchy in model design, and supports archiving of reusable model components defined in our Modular Modeling Language (MML)."

The UrbanSim Project, is dedicated to the development of agent-level simulation of urban development, transportation, and environmental impacts of alternative policy strategies. The UrbanSim software, including full source code, is available for download via this website. It has been applied in various metropolitan regions throughout the U.S. and abroad.

Resource Sites, Groups, and Some Early Individual Researchers

ACE/CAS Research Sites and Groups, annotated list of pointers maintained by Leigh Tesfatsion (Economics, Iowa State University, Ames).

Individual Researchers using ACE/CAS Tools, annotated list of pointers maintained by Leigh Tesfatsion (Economics, Iowa State University, Ames).

The Macaulay Institute in Aberdeen, Scotland, maintains a Web site on a Land Use Change Modelling project, titled Framework for Evaluation and Assessment of Land Use Scenarios (FEARLUS). Agent-based simulation modelling (implemented via SWARMB) constitutes the central component of the FEARLUS project.

The Consumat Page, maintained by Marco Janssen (Arizona State University), introduces the "consumat approach" for the study of environmentally-related behaviour, such as common-pool resource usage problems.

Dawn Parker (University of Waterloo) maintains a resource website for researchers interested in multi-agent systems models of land-use and cover-change(MAS/LUCC). Visitors to this MAS/LUCC Resource Page will find links to literature, conferences and workshops, descriptions of ongoing research projects, and software tools.

François Bousquet (Cirad, France): Multi-agent simulations of natural and renewable resource management (CORMAS); Ecological economics; Economic exchanges and spatial organization; Use of such models in the field to aid coordination.
Joe Henrich (Departments of Psychology and Economics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, CA): Biological evolution of cultural transmission and learning capacities; Evolution of cooperation; Common pool resource and public goods problems; Cross-cultural experimental games; Economic behavior and ethnography among the Mapuche of southern Chile.
Elena Irwin (Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus): Interacting agents, spatial externalities, and the evolution of land-use patterns.

Wander Jager (Faculty of Management and Organization, University of Groningen, The Netherlands): The consumat approach (multi-agent modeling of consumer behavior); Behavioral dynamics; Market behavior; Environmentally sustainable development.
Marco A. Janssen (School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ): The consumat approach (multi-agent modeling of consumer behavior); Complex adaptive systems; Modeling human dimensions of global environmental change; Self-organization of institutions; Interactive models for science-policy dialogue; Multi-agent modeling and evolutionary computation; The collapse of ancient societies.

Elinor Ostrom (Political Science Department and Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN): Common pool resource usage; Collective decision-making.

Dawn Parker (School of Planning, University of Waterloo, CA): Development of integrated socio-economic and biophysical models of land-use change using agent-based modeling; geographic information systems; Behavioral economics applications in environmental and resource economics.

Copyright © 2012 Leigh Tesfatsion. All Rights Reserved.
Site Maintained By:: Leigh Tesfatsion; Department of Economics; Iowa State University; Ames, Iowa 50011-1070; http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/; tesfatsi AT iastate.edu
Online ACE Course (Self-Study eBook)
ACE Website

ACE Research Area: Agricultural and Natural Resource Issues

Basic Issues

Overviews

Other Readings

Software, Toolkits, and Demos

Resource Sites, Groups, and Some Early Individual Researchers

Copyright © 2012 Leigh Tesfatsion. All Rights Reserved.

ACE Research Area:
Agricultural and Natural Resource Issues